We are over halfway through the 2016 primary election season and it is becoming ever clearer who it will be squaring off for the presidency of the United States this November. It is likely that the Democratic Party will nominate former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, despite a tough challenge from Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, and it is likely that the Republican Party will nominate billionaire businessman Donald Trump of New York, who has been at the top of the leaderboards in the GOP race virtually the entire time he has been a candidate.
Why do I say this? Well, let’s first take a look at the raw numbers in both primaries.
On the Republican side, the delegate count looks like this: Donald Trump has 739 pledged delegates to his name. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas has 465 delegates, Florida Senator Marco Rubio (who has already dropped out) has 166, Ohio Governor John Kasich has 143, and 15 have gone to candidates that have already dropped out.
To win, one of the three remaining Republicans must attain 1,237 delegates to win the nomination, and there are 944 delegates remaining in the states left to vote. According to the delegate math, it is impossible for Gov. Kasich to win the nomination. He needs 1,094 delegates, or 120 percent of the remaining delegates, to win, and because of that many Republicans are calling on Gov. Kasich to leave the race and make it a two-man affair between Mr. Trump and Sen. Cruz. Mr. Trump needs 498 delegates, or 53 percent of the remaining delegates, to win the nomination. Sen. Cruz needs 772 delegates, or 82 percent of the remaining delegates, to win.
Just by this math alone, it would appear that Mr. Trump is in a much stronger position to win the Republican nomination and he is leading in many upcoming states such as Arizona and is expected to run strong in states like New York. Mr. Trump also seems to be winning in states that have open primaries – states where the Republican Party of the state allow independents and even some Democrats to vote in a Republican primary. In states that have closed primaries – states that allow only a specific party’s registered members to vote – Sen. Cruz is winning those states and that is what is somehow keeping him in the race.
For the Democrats, it is much different with the addition of their “superdelegates”- party leaders who can vote for whom they please and can switch their votes when they please. Of pledged delegates, Hillary Clinton has amassed 1,223 and Bernie Sanders has amassed 920. Of superdelegates, Secretary Clinton has earned 467 and Sen. Sanders has earned only 26. Combined, Secretary Clinton has 1,690 to Sen. Sanders’ 946.
To win, one of the two Democrats must attain a total of 2,383 delegates and there are 2,129 delegates remaining in the states still to vote. Secretary Clinton needs 693 delegates, or roughly a third of the remaining delegates to win. Sen. Sanders meanwhile needs 1,437 delegates, or roughly two-thirds of the remaining delegates to win. Much like Mr. Trump on the Republican side, Secretary Clinton leads in a large chunk of the remaining primary states, but Sen. Sanders seems to be doing best in caucus states – states where mass meetings are held in polling places and the caucus-goers argue and debate over who is the best candidate are and they are polled as such. But even still it seems to be an uphill battle for Sen. Sanders and as much as his supporters probably do not want to admit (including this one), it looks very unlikely he will win.
So there you have it: Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton. Looking at this matchup if you’re a Republican, you might cringe and here’s why:
In the most recent CNN/ORC poll conducted from March 17-20, Secretary Clinton defeats Mr. Trump by 12 points. So, if I’m a Republican, I’m not liking those numbers if Mr. Trump is the nominee. That same poll also matched Sen. Sanders (should he win) against Mr. Trump and the numbers get worse: Sen. Sanders defeats Mr. Trump by 20 points. But on that same note, the same poll also factored in Sen. Cruz and Gov. Kasich in hypothetical matchups. Between Sen. Cruz and Secretary Clinton, they are neck-and-neck. But, Sen. Cruz loses by double-digits (13 points, to be precise) to Sen. Sanders. Gov. Kasich fares a bit better, losing to Sen. Sanders by 6 points. But when it comes to him and Secretary Clinton, Gov. Kasich actually BEATS her by 6 points.
From these numbers, if Mr. Trump does win the Republican nomination, he will lose and lose royally. So, I would think some Republicans are hoping and praying that their convention in Cleveland does end up being a contested convention, one where one candidate does not have a majority of delegate support and the delegates argue amongst each other who the nominee is. And if Republicans really care about winning, they may want to try and coalesce around Sen. Cruz in the remaining states or, if a contested convention happens, look to a dark-horse (or unexpected candidate, which has happened before) like Gov. Kasich.
Christopher Witt
Reporter