The smell of pine tar and the sound of a broken bat mean one thing: It’s baseball season.
While the New York Yankees won its 27th World Series championship last fall, the National League is looking to looking to recapture the World Series crown that has stayed heavily on the American League’s end. The AL has won 12 of the last 18 World Series.
NL East
Philadelphia Phillies — After losing to the Yankees in the World Series last October, the Phillies didn’t make much noise in the offseason outside of replacing pitcher Cliff Lee with pitcher Roy Halladay.
Halladay gives the Phillies a dominant right-handed hurler to pair with Cole Hamels and J.A. Happ.
But in Philly, it’s all about the offense. Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins lead the Philadelphia bats that finished second in the Majors in extra-base hits.
I see the Phillies as the favorites to win the NL Pennant again in 2010.
Prediction: 95-67
Atlanta Braves — The Braves accomplished something no other team in baseball came close to last season: finish with a .500 or better overall record while earning a losing record at home.
Atlanta finished 40-41 at Turner Field, but were an impressive 46-35 on the road. That odd stat can’t be explained, but I expect the Braves to turn the heat up on the Philadelphia Phillies for the division crown.
The Braves have a good amount of young and veteran arms and the offense, led by future Hall of Fame third baseman Chipper Jones, is full of well-rounded hitters.
Prediction: 92-70
Florida Marlins — Time after time, the Marlins continue to defy odds. You’ve got to give a ton of credit to the scouts and front office in Florida’s organization. The roster always gets flipped upside down and the Marlins are always in contention when September rolls around.
But Florida lacks overall depth because it relies on its minor leaguer system too heavily. When it’s all said and done, the Marlins can’t compete with the upper-echelon teams in the NL.
Prediction: 79-82
New York Mets — It’s got to be frustrating to be a Mets fan. The last three years have been tough: two consecutive September implosions paired with a 70-win season while the Yankees hoisted another championship banner.
Ouch.
With injuries continuing to be a looming question for this team, it’s not going to get better any time soon.
Prediction: 73-89
Washington Nationals — The Nats capped an awful ’09 season with 103 losses and solidified itself with the No. 1 pick in the MLB Draft for the second straight year.
If rookie pitcher Stephen Strasburg, the first player taken in the 2009 Draft, makes the club out of spring training, D.C. might have something to cheer for. The Nationals need all the pitching help it can get after leading the Majors in walks and finishing last in strikeouts.
Prediction: 65-97
NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals — Albert Pujols is the best player in baseball. His presence alone gives the Cards an edge over every other team in the division.
If pitcher Chris Carpenter accumulates more than 30 starts, St. Louis might be home to the MVP and Cy Young winners of 2010.
The Cards are a tough team to beat, especially after resigning outfielder Matt Holliday.
Prediction: 90-72
Milwaukee Brewers — Whatever you do this baseball season, I recommend not sleeping on the Brewers.
Milwaukee surprised the baseball community in 2008 when won the NL Wild Card and clinched their first postseason berth since 1982. The late-season acquisition of pitcher C.C. Sabathia had a lot to do with the milestone, but the Brewers have two of the top hitter in the league hitting back-to-back: outfielder Ryan Braun and first baseman Prince Fielder.
Fielder and Braun combined for 78 home runs, 255 RBIs and a .309 batting average in ’09. Behind those bats, I’d bet on a possible playoff run.
Prediction: 86-76
Chicago Cubs — Chicago was killed by the injury-bug in 2009 as the Cubs top-four hitters played in an average of 110 games. Outfielder Alfonso Soriano and third baseman Aramis Ramirez appear healthy and Chicago looks to get its potent lineup intact.
Pitcher Carlos Zambrano has to find a way to stay healthy after tossing 169 innings in ’09, his lowest output since 2002. The Cubs didn’t add much this offseason, so it all rides on whether they can stay on the field and out of the trainer’s room.
Prediction: 84-78
Cincinnati Reds — The Reds haven’t experienced a winning season since 1999.
With that said, Cincinnati has spent plenty of time in the pits of the division, so it’s time they busted out. Behind the bat of first baseman Joey Votto, the Reds have a promising lineup built around a good combination of power and speed.
A lot of Cincinnati’s success, though, might rely on the bat of Jay Bruce.
Bruce experienced a difficult sophomore season after hitting .223 and only playing in 101 games.
If Bruce can manage to find his swing, the Reds just might get to the coveted 81-win goal.
How sad does that sound?
Prediction: 82-80
Houston Astros — For years now, the Astros lineup has been built around first baseman Lance Berkman and outfielder Carlos Lee. Both produce quality numbers, but a World Series title has been ignored.
I don’t know what it is, but I just don’t believe in the Astros as a whole. I like outfielder Michael Bourn and pitcher Wandy Rodriguez, but collectively, I see Houston finishing in the last half of the Central division.
Prediction: 72-90
Pittsburgh Pirates — Breaking news: The Pirates might actually know what they’re doing.
General Manager Neil Huntington has laid a solid foundation of prospects with potential like outfielders Andrew McCutchen, Garrett Jones and future third baseman Pedro Alvarez.
Maybe in three years, but it’s the basement for now.
Prediction: 66-96
NL West
Colorado Rockies — The Rockies have an exceptionally deep team in 2010.
After starting the ’09 season a little rocky, Colorado charged back into the playoff race after the All-Star break and clinched a Wild Card berth.
I expect the Rockies to take the division this year.
Starter Ubaldo Jimenez is on track to be a great No. 1 pitcher and the offense is loaded with bats. Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki will improve after a mediocre sophomore season and outfielder Dexter Fowler should steal 50-plus bases.
Prediction: 95-67
San Francisco Giants — After finishing 2009 with 88 wins, the Giants surprised many critics who believed San Francisco’s offense simply couldn’t produce enough runs. Led by two-time Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum, the Giants finished first in complete games, shutouts, strikeouts and second in team ERA.
Even with an anemic offense, San Francisco poses a threat to the rest of the National League thanks to its one-two punch of Lincecum and Matt Cain.
Prediction: 90-72
Los Angeles Dodgers — I’m not sure how they did it, but the Dodgers won 95 games last year with an average rotation and a below-average Manny Ramirez.
Luckily, the Dodgers received a ton of production from two of their cornerstone players in outfielders Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier.
Both players produced more than 100 RBIs and carried the offense throughout the season.
Even with Manny returning to form, I’m not sold on L.A.’s rotation. Pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley are nice pieces, but there are more question marks than assurances.
Prediction: 84-78
Arizona Diamondbacks — Former Cy Young winner Brandon Webb returns after missing the majority of the ’09 season, but the Diamondbacks won’t scare anybody this year.
Sure, outfielder Justin Upton is nice and third baseman Mark Reynolds hits a lot of home runs, but there isn’t a lot of substance to the lineup. Don’t be surprised if Arizona leads the league in strikeouts this season.
The D-Backs have a stellar rotation, especially if Webb can regain his dominating stuff. Pitcher Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson will post good numbers, but Arizona won’t pose a threat in the deep NL West.
Prediction: 76-86
San Diego Padres — After covering 29 teams, I’ve finally reached the worst of the batch: The San Diego Padres.
In 2003, the Detroit Tigers finished with 43 wins. I believe the Padres might come embarrassingly close to that mark.
The odd piece to San Diego is first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzalez is one of the top players at his position, both in the field and in the batter’s box. But, San Diego will likely part ways with Gonzalez to avoid paying him a lucrative contract.
With that said, the Padres have ZERO pieces to build around and they have ZERO percent chance of finishing anywhere but last in their division.
Prediction: 53-109